The Unprecedented Return: Navigating the Challenges and Well-Being of Ukrainians Returning Amid Conflict

The Unprecedented Return: Navigating the Challenges and Well-Being of Ukrainians Returning Amid Conflict

Introduction

Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, more than 6 million Ukrainians have fled the country, seeking protection primarily in EU states under the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD). Over the past two years, this framework has granted them access to shelter, employment, and social benefits. However, as the war continues, some European governments are reassessing their approach and shifting focus toward voluntary return initiatives. Countries like the Czech Republic have launched pilot return programs, while similar discussions are taking place in Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland. 

At the same time, Ukraine actively promotes return migration as a solution to labor shortages, and post-war reconstruction efforts. Ukraine’s pre-war demographic decline, driven by low birth rates and high emigration, has been exacerbated by the war. The absence of returning refugees, particularly children and middle-aged women, risks further accelerating population aging and labor shortages. As of November 2024, approximately 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees remain abroad, with only 1.2  - 2.2 million expected to return once the war ends. Less than half of refugees now plan to return, a decline from previous years. The main barriers include ongoing security concerns, housing destruction, and weak labor market conditions.  (Centre for Economic Strategy, 2024)

Although returnees are often framed as an essential workforce for rebuilding the country , the rhetoric of return does not align with the reality on the ground. According to IOM surveys, 44% of displaced Ukrainians lack financial resources to sustain themselves upon return, and Ukraine currently faces the challenge of supporting over 3.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). Furthermore, housing shortages, employment barriers, bureaucratic challenges, and social reintegration difficulties remain widespread concerns. Without proper policies in place, these conditions risk reinforcing inequality and economic instability, ultimately undermining the very reconstruction efforts they are meant to support. A collaborative study by the Migration Policy Institute Europe and the International Organization for Migration on factors influencing refugees’ intentions to return to Ukraine or remain abroad (2024) underscores the importance of moving beyond a binary perspective. Supporting the inclusion of displaced Ukrainians should not be framed as a choice between long-term stay or return. Instead, policies that facilitate integration can also enhance the capacity for return, highlighting the need for a balanced and forward-looking strategy.

To tackle this pressing issue, the Opora Foundation, Upinion, and Laguna Collective have launched a research project to bridge a critical knowledge gap: what challenges do displaced individuals face when returning to a country still at war? Through the Navigating Return project, we seek to present a deeper understanding of returnees' experiences, data-driven recommendations to Ukrainian and EU policymakers on improving reintegration policies and promote awareness of returnees' experiences to foster more inclusive policies and community programs.

The Complexity of Return Migration

Return migration is a complex and dynamic process, particularly for refugees whose displacement is driven by security concerns rather than economic opportunities. Unlike labor migrants, who often return with accumulated skills and financial capital, refugees frequently face property loss, disrupted social ties, and institutional instability (Stefansson, 2006). Their decision to return is shaped not only by personal factors but also by broader political, economic, and institutional conditions in both their host and home countries (Djajić, 2013).

Moreover, return migration has long been studied in post-conflict settings, where returnees reintegrate into societies that have achieved a degree of stability. However, returning amid ongoing war is a largely unexamined phenomenon, introducing unique social, economic, and psychological challenges.

A major obstacle in understanding return migration is the lack of reliable data. As Lucas (2005) points out, “If the data on international migration are generally poor, the recording of return migration is far worse.” Even in high-profile migration studies, return migration remains underexplored, often treated as a secondary aspect of forced displacement rather than a subject of study on its own.

Existing research on refugee return has primarily focused on host-country policies aimed at encouraging repatriation. Strategies vary from voluntary return incentives (e.g., tripartite agreements, "go and see, come and tell" visits) to restrictive measures, such as reduced benefits, return deadlines, or even deportations. The role of host-country policies in shaping return decisions cannot be underestimated. Research shows that host-country conditions often shape return decisions more than improvements in the home country. For instance, Karooma (2014) found that Uganda’s policies toward Rwandan refugees led to their reluctance to return.

The case of Ukrainian returnees reflects these same patterns. Although repatriation remains officially voluntary, policy changes, such as the reduction of social benefits, may indirectly pressure Ukrainians to return. While some displaced Ukrainians choose to return voluntarily, others may feel compelled to do so due to shrinking support systems, economic difficulties, or uncertainty about their long-term legal status. This trend is not new - similar dynamics were observed during the return of Afghan refugees, where host-country policies, rather than home-country improvements, became the primary driver of repatriation (Turton & Marsden, 2002). Additionally, research on Ukrainian refugees in the Netherlands (Tesorio, 2025) highlights that return migration decisions are influenced by host-country placement policies. Many Ukrainians were relocated to peripheral, depopulating municipalities due to housing shortages rather than their own preferences, demonstrating how administrative decisions can significantly affect the return decision-making process.

Understanding Return Migration: A Comprehensive Research Approach

As previous cases of refugee return illustrate, a poorly planned reintegration process - one lacking sustainable employment, housing, and social support mechanisms - could lead to secondary displacement and long-term instability. As emphasized by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the return of displaced Ukrainians should not be viewed solely as a demographic or economic opportunity. Instead, it requires careful planning, policy adaptation, and international coordination to ensure sustainable reintegration. IOM underscores that suitable conditions for return are essential for safe and dignified reintegration and that current efforts should focus on creating these conditions before facilitating returns (IOM, 2023).

The Opora Foundation, Upinion, and Laguna Collective have launched a research project to address this critical knowledge gap, focusing on Ukrainians who have lived under Temporary Protection in the EU and later chose to return. Unlike traditional economic migration studies, this research prioritizes a holistic approach and  nuanced understanding of return migration, moving beyond economic and demographic perspectives to explore the well-being and reintegration experiences of returnees.

The study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative research to capture the full complexity of return migration. Key research components include:

• A large-scale survey assessing economic stability, social reintegration, and well-being.

• In-depth interviews capturing personal motivations, challenges, and long-term aspirations.

• An assessment of psychological well-being, exploring how uncertainty and reintegration conditions impact mental health.

• An analysis of public perceptions and media narratives, examining how returnees are portrayed and how this influences reintegration

By offering empirical evidence, this research project highlights the importance of a holistic approach, one that accounts for security, social cohesion, and long-term stability. It also contributes to a more informed, balanced, and sustainable approach to return migration governance.

If you're a Ukrainian who returned from the EU under TPD and want to join this research, follow the survey link for details. Your insights help shape policies for returnees and displaced communities.
By following the link, you will enter a secure private chat on Facebook or WhatsApp. Your data will be fully anonymized to ensure confidentiality. This step is necessary for you to review and agree to the terms. 

For those interested in learning more about this study or reaching out to the Opora research team, contact us here. 

List of references:

• Centre for Economic Strategy. (2024). Ukraine’s demographic challenges and migration trends. CES. 

  
  

• Centre for Economic Strategy. (2025, February 28). Ukrainian refugees after three years abroad: Fourth wave of research.

• Djajić, S. (2013). Assimilation and the education of immigrants over time. International Economic Review, 54(3), 825-855.

  
  

• International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2023). Conditions for safe and dignified return of displaced Ukrainians. IOM Report.

• Karooma, C. (2014). Reluctant to return? The primacy of social networks in the repatriation of Rwandan refugees in Uganda. University of Oxford, Refugee Studies Centre.

  
  

• Lucas, R. E. B. (2005). International migration and economic development: Lessons from low-income countries. Edward Elgar Publishing.

  
  

• Migration Policy Institute Europe & International Organization for Migration. (2024). Refugees’ intentions to return to Ukraine or remain abroad: A policy analysis. MPI & IOM Report.

  
  

• Stefansson, A. H. (2006). Homes in the making: Property restitution, refugee return, and senses of belonging in Bosnia. International Migration, 44(3), 115-138.

  
  

• Turton, D., & Marsden, P. (2002). Taking refugees for a ride? The politics of refugees return to Afghanistan. Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit.

  
  

• Tesorio, F. (2025). Ukrainian refugees in the Netherlands: Housing policies and return migration decisions. Journal of Migration Studies, 12(1), 45-67.

  
  

• United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). (2024). Ukraine situation: Displacement and return trends. UNHCR Report.